Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.019510 0.022122 0.024977 0.028332 0.032170 0.036431 0.041525
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.015034 0.018481 0.022582 0.027836 0.034411 0.042397 0.052877
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.012668 0.016427 0.021159 0.027583 0.036125 0.047158 0.062596
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.011009 0.014907 0.020044 0.027357 0.037579 0.051472 0.071980
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.010051 0.014133 0.019733 0.028044 0.040185 0.057451 0.084190
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.008994 0.013068 0.018856 0.027765 0.041294 0.061322 0.093690
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.008450 0.012659 0.018838 0.028682 0.044190 0.068037 0.108177
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.007524 0.011576 0.017696 0.027743 0.044086 0.070074 0.115422
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.006848 0.010801 0.016934 0.027292 0.044662 0.073177 0.124672
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.006138 0.009903 0.015887 0.026258 0.044142 0.074370 0.130719
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.005909 0.009759 0.016034 0.027205 0.047035 0.081592 0.148190
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005693 0.009614 0.016158 0.028111 0.049926 0.089075 0.166982
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005445 0.009400 0.016161 0.028829 0.052603 0.096545 0.186874
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.005042 0.008881 0.015589 0.028457 0.053236 0.100302 0.200012
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004696 0.008434 0.015103 0.028188 0.054017 0.104391 0.214276
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004391 0.008033 0.014662 0.027958 0.054836 0.108617 0.229317
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004236 0.007898 0.014704 0.028661 0.057581 0.117000 0.254350
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003971 0.007531 0.014271 0.028375 0.058260 0.121153 0.270496
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003871 0.007475 0.014434 0.029314 0.061600 0.131311 0.301689
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.003568 0.006994 0.013717 0.028352 0.060744 0.132201 0.311123
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.003344 0.006654 0.013257 0.027891 0.060937 0.135438 0.326624
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003078 0.006210 0.012550 0.026833 0.059681 0.135223 0.333498
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003027 0.006205 0.012755 0.027802 0.063171 0.146469 0.371107